Real Estate News

Stale Report: Watch out listings sitting on the market going into 2019

According to the latest numbers, single-family homes sat on the market, on average, for 61 days while Toronto condos sat on the market for 54 days, on average. Like a rock hard baguette, GTA's listings are quite stale going into 2019
Stale Report - Toronto January 2019

Stagnant listings in some of Toronto’s most affluent neighbourhoods contributed to a resolutely stale single-family home market at the end of 2018.

As of New Year’s Eve, 77% of single-family homes on the Toronto Real Estate Board has been listed for 30 days or more.

Posh postal codes contributed significantly to the city’s high stale count: St. Andrew-Windfields, Willowdale East, Bridle Path-Sunnybrook York Mills, Bayview Village and Bedford Park-Nortown were among the top 10 neighbourhoods with the stalest listings.

Condominium sales also appeared to slow in the downtown core, with 62% of all condo listings having been on the market for 30 days or more.

Condo-dense neighbourhoods along the Waterfront, in Mimico as well as the Bay and Yonge-Church corridors had the highest number of stale TREB listings.

The median days on market (the number of days a listing is publicly for sale on the Multiple Listing Service) for stale single-family dwellings in Toronto was 61 days in December 2018.

The median days that stale condominium listings were on the market in December was 54 days.

What neighbourhoods have stale listings?

Comparing stale listings between neighbourhoods can be tricky. As with any city, Toronto has certain areas that simply see more real estate activity than others. To account for this, Zolo has produced two different rankings:

  1. Relative Ranking looks at neighbourhoods that have the highest percentage of stale listings relative to fresh ones.
  2. Weighted Ranking first sorts by most listings in a given neighbourhood, then by relative stale listings.

Stalest neighbourhoods for single-family homes

Single-family homes in the city’s north end lingered on TREB leading up to the new year.

Going by Relative Stale Ranking, 20 Toronto neighbourhoods failed to add a single new listing in the month of December, meaning their listings were 100% stale. Of those, Leaside, Niagara, Weston-Pellam Park and Woodbine-Lumsden had the most listings that were stale going into 2019.

Using a Weighted Ranking, Toronto’s St. Andrew-Windfields, Willowdale East, Newtonbrook East, Bayview Village and, Bedford Park-Nortown neighbourhoods had the most listings that were stale.

Check out how all Toronto neighbourhoods ranked below, based on December 2018 data:


Stalest neighbourhoods condos

Conversely, it was the city’s south end — stretching east from southern Etobicoke to Broadview and north from Lakeshore to Bloor Street — that had the most condo listings heading into 2019.

As with single-family homes, roughly 20 Toronto neighbourhoods had 100% stale listings when using Relative Ranking. St. Andrew-Windfields, Rosedale-Moore Park, Cabbagetown-South St. James Town, Forest Hill South and Rouge E11 ended the 2018 year with the most listings that were stale. 

Using a Weighted Stale Ranking placed Toronto’s Waterfront Communities C1, Mimico, Willowdale East, Bay Street Corridor and Church-Yonge Corridor neighbourhoods had the highest level of stale listings.

Stale Listings by Days-On-Market (DOM)

Single-Family Homes

The median DOM for stale single-family dwellings in Toronto, of which there 1113 listed on the market at the end of December, was 61 days.

The single-family home with the largest DOM continues to be 5-bedroom, 10-bathroom Bridle Path home that’s been on the market for roughly 600 days and is currently listed at $15 million.

Condos

Out of 998 stale listings, the median days that stale condominium listings are on the market is 54 days. The listing that has been on the market the longest continues to be a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condominium in Mimico.

Stale Listings by Price

Single Family Homes

Out of 1113 stale single-family home listings, the median price was roughly $1.4 million — more than double that of stale condo listings. The priciest property at the end of the year was a 9-bedroom, 14-bathroom home on the Bridle Path listed for $39.5 million.

Condos

Out of 1003 stale listings, the median price of stale listings in Toronto is $646,500. The most expensive listing is a 2-story luxury condo apartment with 4 bedrooms and 7 bathrooms in the Annex, listed at $28,750,000.

Going forward into 2019

While this report does not factor in re-lists by sellers under a different MLS number, we know that this is one tactic that Realtors and sellers will use to try and refresh a stale listing. As a result, buyers will need to be diligent. If you’re interested in a specific property, make sure you ask your Realtor for an MLS history for the address. Ask to see all activity for the last year or two. This should help capture the relists and relaunches used to help refresh a property. 

METHODOLOGY

Zolo News analyzed approximately 3,000 single-family home and condominium properties that were listed on MLS as of December 31, 2018.

The report focuses on stale listings, real estate lingo for properties listed for sale that failed to sell within a certain period of time.  For our purposes, we consider a listing to be stale if it has sat on the market for 31 days or longer (a period of time also known as “DOM” or “Days on Market”). This 30-day mark is considered the industry and historical standard for the general average amount of time a listing will sit on the market before selling to a new buyer.

Why look at stale listings? Because it’s a great way to assess the relative health of a market.

A “fresher” market favours sellers, indicating market demand.

A “stale” market is better for buyers, affording them more leverage when purchasing homes that have languished on the market.

Toronto’s real estate market is a fluid platform with listings constantly being added and removed from the real estate portal. Zolo’s analysis is a snapshot comprised of active residential Freehold and Condominium listings on MLS as of December 31, 2018. Since our list is gathered independently, there can be a slight variation in figures posted in our stale report and the Toronto Real Estate Board’s monthly Market Watch report.

For single-family homes (otherwise classified as freehold listings), the following property types have been excluded from our analysis: Vacant Land, Other, Store w/apartment, properties listed at $1 or less.

For condo listings, the following property types have been excluded from our analysis: Parking Space, Locker, Leasehold, Det Condo, Co-Op Apt, Locker, Other, Common Element, Co-Ownership Apartment.

This report does not factor in re-lists by sellers under a different MLS number.

David Weisz
David Weisz

Toronto-based David Weisz specializes in data-driven journalism. Prior to joining Zolo, he worked at the Toronto Star, Queen's Park Briefing and Global News. He teaches data journalism at Humber College and the University of Toronto Munk School of Global Affairs' Fellowship in Global Journalism.

DavidWeisz