Whether the market is hot or not, year after year home buyers find the best deals during the winter months.
In typical years, home sales start to slow down in November and don’t pick up until about February or March. For that reason, home shopping bargain hunters tend to get busy during this time.
However, buyers really keen on getting a good deal should plan to pull the trigger during one specific week — the third week in January. In fact, buyers should consider the third Monday in January — known as Blue Monday — as the best day to buy a home. This year, that day is Monday January 18.
There are three reasons that make the third Monday of the first month — or Blue Monday — the best day to buy:
- Decreased competition (fewer buyers are house-shopping during cold, wet winter months);
- Increased seller fatigue (made worse given that many sellers listed before the holidays or were forced to list due to changing family circumstances);
- The third Monday of January starts a week when most people are opening up their holiday credit card statements, sorting out their finances and are really starting to feel the impact of the long, cold, dark winter days.
How Do We Know What the Best Day Is to Buy?
The idea of trying to find the best day to buy started nine years ago when a now-defunct Toronto brokerage (known as TheRedPin) analyzed half a decade of market data. By examining just over 650,000 Toronto-area transactions, they were able to pinpoint the one day that would offer home buyers the best chance of getting a bargain. This one day is known as Blue Monday.
Why the Third Week in January?
The theory is that sellers with homes on the market during January are motivated to sell for reasons other than a lifestyle choice. Perhaps they are facing financial hardship, or they got a job promotion that’s taking them to a different city, maybe they are going through a divorce, or perhaps they bought a place in late-fall the year before and now they must sell their current home to avoid carrying two mortgages. Whatever the reason, there is a need to sell which puts the seller at a disadvantage.
Also, quite often sellers with homes on the market in the winter have to wait longer to sell their home. This translates to more open houses, more viewing appointments, more cleaning and a greater struggle to keep the house in tip-top shape. This can lead to seller fatigue.
Finally, there are fewer buyers in the winter months, particularly in December and January, since this time is so close the holiday season. It’s also why the third week of January (and specifically Blue Monday) is the best time. By the third week, most people are back into the swing of things. Kids are back in school and back to their routine; people are back and work and schedules are in place.
Buy a Home in January and Save Thousands off the Purchase Price
To see if the savings found by the initial study also applied to other markets, we examined sales data for the last ten years, buyers in Greater Vancouver saved, on average, 5.5% if they finalized the sale of their property purchase in January (when compared to peak sales data, usually found in May). Home buyers in the Fraser Valley saved, on average, 8.5%.
Based on data from the Canada Real Estate Association Greater Vancouver buyers who waited until January could save $57,420 of the November 2020 benchmark price of $1,044,000. Those in the Fraser Valley (or Lower Mainland of BC) who waited until January could save $74,639 off the November 2020 benchmark price of $878,100.
Assuming buyers could save an average of 5% by waiting to buy a home in January, those in the Greater Toronto Area could save approximately $45,125 off the $902,500 benchmark price recorded in November 2020.
| Ave. Home $ Greater Vancouver | Ave. Home $ Fraser Valley | |
| Average Savings | 5.5% | 8.5% |
| January 2018 | $1,038,104 | $724,746 |
| May 2018 | $1,107,804 | $745,968 |
| Difference | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| January 2017 | $887,577 | $626,240 |
| May 2017 | $1,109,023 | $737,830 |
| Difference | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| January 2016 | $1,090,241 | $669,085 |
| May 2016 | $1,067,419 | $722,384 |
| Difference | -2.1% | 7.4% |
| January 2015 | $820,883 | $524,585 |
| May 2015 | $905,956 | $573,754 |
| Difference | 9.4% | 8.6% |
| January 2014 | $803,942 | $490,505 |
| May 2014 | $813,985 | $535,832 |
| Difference | 1.2% | 8.6% |
| January 2013 | $748,234 | $435,485 |
| May 2013 | $776,996 | $498,609 |
| Difference | 3.7% | 12.7% |
| January 2012 | $755,133 | $466,062 |
| May 2012 | $729,519 | $484,299 |
| Difference | -3.4% | 3.8% |
| January 2011 | $769,237 | $441,372 |
| May 2011 | $833,205 | $526,507 |
| Difference | 7.7% | 16.2% |
| January 2010 | $640,445 | $433,831 |
| May 2010 | $667,025 | $457,941 |
| Difference | 4.0% | 5.3% |
| January 2009 | $537,416 | $399,881 |
| May 2009 | $585,194 | $418,962 |
| Difference | 8.2% | 4.6% |
Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Zolo
