Housing Market News

Buyers’ and sellers’ markets in Toronto by neighbourhood (January 2019)

Despite more and more listings hitting the stale mark (on the market for 30 days or more) there are still hot pockets. Condos and townhouses are consistently in demand in Metro Toronto's west end while buyers of single-family homes in the Danforth area can still expect price increases and bidding wars
toronto housing market report - january 2019
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As predicted, real estate went out with a whimper by the end of 2018. Sure, properties were still selling in the Greater Toronto Area but depending on what statistic or anecdote you concentrated on things were either correcting or crashing.

For those on the precipice of a property decision — first-time buyers still looking to get in, move-on uppers looking for their next home or right-sizers looking to cash-in on accumulated equity — the real question is whether or not the market favours your decision…right now.

It’s a hard question to answer. One way to grapple with that decision is to examine the market absorption rates. The MAR shows the demand and supply relationship of a real estate. It’s calculated by taking the total number of sales at the end of a given time period (in this case, a calendar month) and dividing it by the total number of active listings available during the same time period.

For almost half a year, Zolo has tracked the MAR for the Greater Toronto Area and now, going into 2019, the trends that are emerging are helping to pick apart the general (often doomsday) headlines and helping to contextualize what buyers and sellers are facing in the market…right now.

What did we notice? Well, certain neighbourhoods continue to experience high demand. When the MAR ratio is higher this means there is more demand for properties in that area and the more opportunity for a seller to ask a higher price for their home for sale and even a chance of running into a bidding war!

That might sound strange, considering 77% of single-family home listings in the GTA are stale, meaning the listings sat on the market for 30 days or more.

In the GTA, the neighbourhoods that consistently reported high MAR ratios for single-family homes include:

The neighbourhoods with high demand for condos and townhomes include:

The flipside, of course, is that some communities have been firmly entrenched in a buyer’s market. For single-family homes, these communities included:

For condos and townhouses, the communities that are consistently in a buyer’s market include:

  • Whitchurch-Stouffville region – Average 5 month MAR = 10.12% 
  • Simcoe Region – Average 5 month MAR = 17.57%
  • King City regionAverage 5 month MAR = 18.00%
  • Aurora regionAverage 5 month MAR = 18.21%

To help you assess what you need to know about the precise neighbourhood or communities you are currently interested in, here are the results for the Zolo Market Report for January 2019. We created a searchable list that allows you to find your neighbourhood or to sort by market absorption rate or degree of monthly change. Remember, a market is in balanced territory when the sales-to-listings ratio is between 35% and 55%. According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, ratios above 55% indicate a seller’s market, while ratios below 35% indicate a buyer’s market.

Seller’s, Buyer’s & Balanced Markets for GTA Condos & Townhouses

AreaNeighbourhoodsMarket Absorption Rate (August)Market Absorption Rate (September)Market Absorption Rate (October)Market Absorption Rate (November)Market Absorption Rate (December)M-o-M Change
Scugog --%--%0.00%--%--%--%
East Gwillimbury --%--%--%--%--%--%
Caledon 0.00%50.00%100.00%100.00%--%--%
Brock --%--%--%--%--%--%
Whitchurch-Stouffville 27.27%16.67%6.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%
King 20.00%0.00%50.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%
Simcoe Region25.58%13.33%23.68%8.57%16.67%8.10%
Aurora 16.39%20.34%17.86%17.02%19.44%2.42%
C13 Banbury - Don Mills, Parkwoods - Donalda, Victoria Village44.68%34.55%49.18%65.91%21.62%-44.29%
Oshawa 53.19%39.22%21.88%37.04%22.22%-14.81%
E02 Woodbine Corridor, The Beaches62.50%84.62%45.00%100.00%23.08%-76.92%
W07 Newtonbrook West, Westminster - Branson, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate50.00%9.09%100.00%66.67%25.00%-41.67%
Oakville 54.14%36.13%54.62%42.62%25.24%-17.38%
Richmond Hill 31.58%24.62%30.99%28.77%27.78%-0.99%
Vaughan 21.21%24.07%29.76%37.65%28.21%-9.44%
York Region 31.00%23.99%28.83%33.69%28.33%-5.36%
Markham 40.29%24.65%28.62%38.86%30.51%-8.36%
Halton Region 58.19%46.63%59.59%49.26%33.33%-15.93%
C12 86.67%26.09%22.22%21.88%35.00%13.13%
C02 Yonge - St. Clair, Annex University, Wychwood47.13%41.18%47.12%54.65%36.07%-18.59%
C15 Bayview Woods - Steeles, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Village, Don Valley Village, Henry Farm, Pleasant View46.39%35.05%58.96%59.46%36.97%-22.48%
W06 Mimico, Aldershot, Lakeview50.57%54.22%47.03%48.59%38.30%-10.29%
C03 Oakwood - Vaughan, Forest Hill South68.42%26.92%61.54%40.91%38.46%-2.45%
Halton Hills 87.50%118.18%171.43%175.00%39.23%-135.77%
E05 Steeles, L'Amoreaux, Tam O'Shanter - Sullivan47.92%36.08%38.04%44.74%40.00%-4.74%
W05 Humber Summit, Humbermede, Black Creek, Glenfield - Jane Heights, Downsview - Roding, York University Heights73.08%42.86%51.06%51.22%42.03%-9.19%
Burlington 54.03%53.49%56.35%48.31%44.19%-4.12%
Durham Region 64.52%48.91%49.44%52.50%44.70%-7.80%
Newmarket 38.71%22.86%36.59%45.16%45.00%-0.16%
C07 Westminster - Branson, Newtonbrook West, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate39.19%40.94%40.56%42.75%46.99%4.24%
C14 Newtonbrook East, Willowdale East57.07%53.67%63.86%72.80%48.39%-24.41%
C08 Cabbagetown South - St. Jamestown, Regent Park, Moss Park, Waterfront Communities C869.31%65.45%61.25%75.00%48.55%-26.45%
C11 Thorncliffe Park, Flemingdon Park, Leaside65.71%57.14%47.62%53.33%48.65%-4.68%
E09 Bendale, Woburn, Morningside61.11%59.74%55.00%62.32%49.09%-13.23%
Brampton 46.70%38.69%56.73%64.75%49.50%-15.24%
Uxbridge 33.33%36.36%20.00%50.00%50.00%0.00%
Georgina 50.00%66.67%50.00%0.00%50.00%50.00%
Ajax 55.56%95.83%88.89%100.00%50.00%-50.00%
W04 Humberlea - Pelmo Park, Rustic, Maple Leaf, Brookhaven - Amesbury, Mount Dennis, Yorkdale - Glen Park, Briar Hill - Belgravia50.00%48.05%67.19%46.75%51.72%4.97%
Toronto East (Region) 54.23%41.25%50.78%60.09%53.09%-7.01%
E01 North Riverdale, South Riverdale75.00%57.14%100.00%59.38%55.56%-3.82%
Toronto Central (Region) 59.81%51.76%61.81%64.67%56.26%-8.42%
C09 Rosedale - Moore Park27.78%83.33%63.16%109.09%57.14%-51.95%
Pickering 41.03%43.64%51.02%47.83%58.33%10.51%
E07 Milliken, Agincourt North, Agincourt South - Malvern West48.42%37.63%46.51%50.70%58.33%7.63%
Toronto West (Region) 61.17%52.74%60.06%59.97%58.50%-1.46%
W10 West Humber Clairville, Elms - Old Rexdale, Thistletown - Beaumond Heights, Mount Olive Silverstone Jamestown78.95%45.16%38.16%47.83%59.62%11.79%
Peel Region 63.71%52.35%70.73%64.60%61.11%-3.49%
E11 Malvern, Rouge E1150.00%32.14%59.26%67.50%62.96%-4.54%
Toronto Region 59.06%50.12%59.42%62.71%63.30%0.59%
Mississauga 69.83%57.58%75.87%64.47%64.75%0.28%
Whitby 114.29%54.17%75.00%57.69%68.75%11.06%
C01 Dufferin Grove, Palmerston - Little Italy, Trinity Bellwoods, Waterfront Communities C1, Niagara, The Islands71.81%61.28%71.93%70.89%68.89%-2.00%
Clarington 108.33%31.58%100.00%66.67%75.00%8.33%
C04 Bedford Park Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Lawrence Park South, Forest Hill North, Edgemont - Lawrence60.00%35.14%84.00%42.86%75.00%32.14%
C10 Mount Pleasant East71.05%49.15%80.00%89.19%76.19%-13.00%
E08 Scarborough Village, Cliffcrest, Guildwood52.50%57.58%26.67%86.67%80.00%-6.67%
W08 Eringate - Centennial West Deane, Princess-Rosethorn, Edenbridge Humber Valley, Kingsway South, Etobicoke West Mall, Markland Woods, Islington City Centre West61.68%50.74%68.70%63.16%80.28%17.12%
W09 Willowridge-Martingrove-Richview, Kingsview Village - The Westway, Humber Heights36.36%42.50%56.41%81.82%83.33%1.52%
E06 Birchcliffe Cliffside12.50%20.00%23.53%56.25%90.00%33.75%
C06 Bathurst Manor, Clanton Park33.33%41.03%66.67%66.67%100.00%33.33%
E04 Wexford Maryvale, Dorset Park, Ionview, Kennedy Park, Clairlea Birchmount, Oakridge70.83%32.76%48.21%64.71%110.34%45.64%
Milton 95.45%45.16%68.97%64.29%114.29%50.00%
W02 High Park North, Junction Area106.67%73.08%96.88%205.00%115.38%-89.62%
E10 Highland Creek, West Hill, Centennial Scarborough, Rouge E1089.47%23.08%86.67%78.57%128.57%50.00%
E03 East York, Broadview North, Danforth, Danforth Village - East Yori, O'Connor - Parkview, Crescent Town35.00%32.00%85.71%42.11%130.00%87.89%
W01 High Park - Swansea, Roncessvalles, South Parkdale81.48%123.33%118.52%65.63%150.00%84.38%
Dufferin Region 75.00%120.00%25.00%50.00%166.67%116.67%
W03 Rockcliffe-Smythe, Keelesdale-Eglinton West, Weston Pellam Park100.00%58.33%100.00%114.29%266.67%152.38%

Seller’s, Buyer’s & Balanced Markets for GTA Single-Family Homes

AreaNeighbourhoodsMarket Absorption Rate (August)Market Absorption Rate (September)Market Absorption Rate (October)Market Absorption Rate (November)Market Absorption Rate (December)M-o-M Change
King 11.50%8.56%11.30%13.39%4.02%-9.37%
C12 15.63%8.46%10.37%11.76%5.49%-6.27%
C15 Bayview Woods - Steeles, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Village, Don Valley Village, Henry Farm, Pleasant View25.62%14.94%20.71%20.47%6.25%-14.22%
C07 Westminster - Branson, Newtonbrook West, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate8.22%15.43%19.77%16.56%11.70%-4.85%
C14 Newtonbrook East, Willowdale East13.82%11.95%11.04%8.67%11.82%3.15%
East Gwillimbury 15.33%12.86%19.76%15.96%11.90%-4.06%
C13 Banbury - Don Mills, Parkwoods - Donalda, Victoria Village16.00%37.08%37.97%37.50%12.77%-24.73%
Richmond Hill 22.38%14.50%16.73%16.64%13.81%-2.84%
Simcoe Region 20.68%21.26%25.62%19.64%14.72%-4.92%
C04 Bedford Park Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Lawrence Park South, Forest Hill North, Edgemont - Lawrence30.30%36.18%44.38%36.57%14.81%-21.75%
Brock 20.00%22.99%25.64%19.44%15.63%-3.82%
Whitchurch-Stouffville 20.77%17.92%22.26%16.59%16.56%-0.04%
York Region 21.80%17.34%21.98%20.83%17.42%-3.41%
Toronto East 53.35%45.29%59.13%52.22%18.14%-34.08%
Georgina 16.06%21.15%26.64%23.58%18.18%-5.40%
Uxbridge 14.66%12.21%18.03%17.59%18.31%0.72%
Markham 25.69%21.33%25.73%24.01%18.33%-5.68%
Scugog 25.00%25.23%28.30%23.86%18.46%-5.40%
W06 Mimico, Aldershot, Lakeview66.10%39.29%55.10%42.86%19.70%-23.16%
E10 Highland Creek, West Hill, Centennial Scarborough, Rouge E1031.96%28.93%48.18%35.71%20.27%-15.44%
Vaughan 23.49%18.48%23.27%23.32%20.85%-2.47%
Oakville 28.81%24.05%25.66%21.47%21.16%-0.32%
Caledon 21.99%24.92%25.72%23.95%21.21%-2.74%
E07 Milliken, Agincourt North, Agincourt South - Malvern West35.90%29.41%28.24%25.33%21.28%-4.06%
Aurora 28.13%13.72%22.33%27.56%23.42%-4.14%
E11 Malvern, Rouge E1156.36%55.36%40.00%48.84%25.00%-23.84%
Newmarket 21.72%20.67%26.80%21.11%25.23%4.11%
C06 Bathurst Manor, Clanton Park31.43%28.57%21.15%14.81%25.81%10.99%
Clarington 46.73%36.18%40.87%37.41%28.00%-9.41%
Halton Hills 66.39%28.66%47.92%31.29%28.88%-2.41%
Pickering 34.07%35.27%37.13%42.35%29.03%-13.32%
Toronto Central 25.18%24.06%33.33%29.22%32.62%3.40%
Burlington 40.58%34.88%41.05%37.76%32.65%-5.10%
Whitby 49.83%38.54%40.19%42.31%33.33%-8.97%
E05 Steeles, L'Amoreaux, Tam O'Shanter - Sullivan42.25%26.58%33.33%33.33%33.33%0.00%
Durham Region 39.94%34.37%37.32%40.04%33.48%-6.56%
Mississauga 37.64%29.89%35.19%37.00%34.07%-2.93%
W10 West Humber Clairville, Elms - Old Rexdale, Thistletown - Beaumond Heights, Mount Olive Silverstone Jamestown50.85%34.72%58.46%44.07%34.15%-9.92%
Halton Region 38.45%29.40%36.52%29.41%34.34%4.94%
W04 Humberlea - Pelmo Park, Rustic, Maple Leaf, Brookhaven - Amesbury, Mount Dennis, Yorkdale - Glen Park, Briar Hill - Belgravia42.55%25.41%44.04%25.00%35.14%10.14%
C02 Yonge - St. Clair, Annex University, Wychwood73.08%37.21%97.62%102.94%35.29%-67.65%
Peel Region 37.93%33.16%39.13%40.24%36.12%-4.12%
W08 Eringate - Centennial West Deane, Princess-Rosethorn, Edenbridge Humber Valley, Kingsway South, Etobicoke West Mall, Markland Woods, Islington City Centre West32.35%32.69%45.81%44.72%37.68%-7.03%
E08 Scarborough Village, Cliffcrest, Guildwood48.33%40.54%43.06%33.80%38.10%4.29%
Oshawa 40.53%33.75%37.38%49.02%38.28%-10.74%
Toronto West 48.06%38.72%55.05%45.76%39.83%-5.93%
Milton 44.67%34.82%51.13%38.01%40.76%2.75%
Brampton 41.38%37.40%45.29%46.65%41.07%-5.57%
W05 Humber Summit, Humbermede, Black Creek, Glenfield - Jane Heights, Downsview - Roding, York University Heights35.94%28.30%34.03%25.58%41.76%16.18%
W07 Newtonbrook West, Westminster - Branson, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate130.77%77.78%93.75%79.17%42.86%-36.31%
W03 Rockcliffe-Smythe, Keelesdale-Eglinton West, Weston Pellam Park52.05%41.67%75.00%64.94%45.10%-19.84%
E04 Wexford Maryvale, Dorset Park, Ionview, Kennedy Park, Clairlea Birchmount, Oakridge64.63%43.36%49.00%71.79%45.10%-26.70%
C11 Thorncliffe Park, Flemingdon Park, Leaside28.57%25.00%56.67%52.00%45.45%-6.55%
Toronto Region 40.63%34.73%47.21%40.64%47.06%6.42%
C01 Dufferin Grove, Palmerston - Little Italy, Trinity Bellwoods, Waterfront Communities C1, Niagara, The Islands57.58%57.14%93.75%52.83%55.17%2.34%
E06 Birchcliffe Cliffside38.78%30.67%45.71%38.18%56.67%18.48%
C08 Cabbagetown South - St. Jamestown, Regent Park, Moss Park, Waterfront Communities C8114.29%31.58%41.67%55.56%57.14%1.59%
C03 Oakwood - Vaughan, Forest Hill South38.64%35.94%83.02%51.92%57.69%5.77%
W01 High Park - Swansea, Roncessvalles, South Parkdale42.86%76.67%84.85%80.00%58.33%-21.67%
Ajax 49.54%47.84%46.75%46.92%61.42%14.50%
W02 High Park North, Junction Area79.31%76.79%117.31%86.05%62.96%-23.08%
Dufferin Region 36.45%42.73%70.89%39.73%68.09%28.36%
C09 Rosedale - Moore Park27.27%12.50%28.13%77.78%71.43%-6.35%
W09 Willowridge-Martingrove-Richview, Kingsview Village - The Westway, Humber Heights55.00%34.78%23.21%55.32%72.73%17.41%
E09 Bendale, Woburn, Morningside61.11%42.65%87.27%49.12%76.67%27.54%
C10 Mount Pleasant East107.69%52.00%40.00%52.17%77.78%25.60%
E03 East York, Broadview North, Danforth, Danforth Village - East York, O'Connor - Parkview, Crescent Town67.19%59.18%71.15%62.35%89.19%26.84%
E02 Woodbine Corridor, The Beaches114.29%80.49%123.08%121.05%114.29%-6.77%
E01 North Riverdale, South Riverdale118.18%112.24%200.00%125.81%175.00%49.19%

What to expect going into 2019

Going into 2019, buyers and sellers need to realize that mortgages will become more expensive for borrowers and this will impact how much a buyer can afford and will put downward pressure on prices. (See how increased mortgage rates  impact house buying budgets.)

The key going forward into 2019 will be to keep in eye on the neighbourhood, area and region’s market absorption rates — to determine if a trend is shifting and whether or not this shift offers an opportunity for buyers, sellers or investors.

Every month, we publish the Zolo Market Report to provide insight and context for your real estate decisions.

Romana King
Romana King

Romana is an award-winning personal finance writer with an expertise in real estate. She is obsessed with the property marketplace and is the current Director of Content at Zolo.

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