Housing Market News

Buyers’ and sellers’ markets in Toronto by neighbourhood (February 2019)

A year of analysis shows that supply and demand in the GTA depends greatly on the property type and location of neighbourhood, with certain communities holding strong despite slower sales
Zolo Market Absorption Report 2019 - February - Greater Toronto
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Why do brokerages, agents, buyers and sellers examine statistics and data? To make better decisions.

By examining trends and patterns, agents, buyers and sellers (and anyone else involved in the real estate marketplace) can better assess the current market and make better decisions.

For instance, if a buyer learned that a home they were interested in putting an offer on was in a neighbourhood whose demand and supply ratio meant that buyer’s had the upper hand, do you think that would alter the buyer’s offer strategy? Absolutely.

It’s why tracking the market absorption rate (MAR) is so important, particularly as we start to come into the spring buying season. The MAR shows the demand and supply relationship of a real estate. It’s calculated by taking the total number of sales at the end of a given time period (in this case, a calendar month) and dividing it by the total number of active listings available during the same time period.

Of course, to make the demand seem stronger and the supply seems less plentiful, it is possible to use the sales (demand) to new listings (new supply). But we don’t like to do that. Instead, we like to get a better idea of the actual market supply and the actual demand for all that is currently listed, so we compare sales to all listings currently available within a given time frame.

Based on the most recent data, as of January 31, 2019, here are the neighbourhoods that are in a buyer’s market (highlighted in yellow), a balanced market (highlighted in green) and in a seller’s market (highlighted in orange). Search this table to find the neighbourhood(s) y0u are most interested in and then adjust your selling or buying strategy accordingly.

Remember, a market is balanced when the sales-to-listings ratio is between 35% and 55%. According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, ratios above 55% indicate a seller’s market, while ratios below 35% indicate a buyer’s market.

Seller’s, Buyer’s & Balanced Markets for GTA Condos & Townhouses

AreaNeighbourhoodsMarket Absorption Rate (AUG)Market Absorption Rate (Sept)Market Absorption Rate (October)Market Absorption Rate (November)Market Absorption Rate (December)Market Absorption Rate (January)M-o-M Change6 MONTH MAR AVERAGE
Whitchurch-Stouffville27.27%16.67%6.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%8.43%
Simcoe Region25.58%13.33%23.68%8.57%16.67%13.64%-3.03%16.91%
King20.00%0.00%50.00%20.00%0.00%25.00%25.00%19.17%
Aurora16.39%20.34%17.86%17.02%19.44%28.13%8.68%19.86%
Vaughan21.21%24.07%29.76%37.65%28.21%21.99%-6.22%27.15%
York Region31.00%23.99%28.83%33.69%28.33%34.30%5.97%30.02%
Richmond Hill31.58%24.62%30.99%28.77%27.78%55.95%28.17%33.28%
Markham40.29%24.65%28.62%38.86%30.51%38.67%8.17%33.60%
Uxbridge33.33%36.36%20.00%50.00%50.00%16.67%-33.33%34.39%
Oshawa53.19%39.22%21.88%37.04%22.22%39.58%17.36%35.52%
Newmarket38.71%22.86%36.59%45.16%45.00%25.00%-20.00%35.55%
W06Mimico, Aldershot, Lakeview50.57%54.22%47.03%48.59%38.30%0.00%-38.30%39.78%
C1286.67%26.09%22.22%21.88%35.00%49.00%14.00%40.14%
E06Birchcliffe Cliffside12.50%20.00%23.53%56.25%90.00%-90.00%40.46%
Oakville54.14%36.13%54.62%42.62%25.24%34.51%9.27%41.21%
E05Steeles, L'Amoreaux, Tam O'Shanter - Sullivan47.92%36.08%38.04%44.74%40.00%-40.00%41.36%
C02Yonge - St. Clair, Annex University, Wychwood47.13%41.18%47.12%54.65%36.07%26.32%-9.75%42.08%
C07Westminster - Branson, Newtonbrook West, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate39.19%40.94%40.56%42.75%46.99%43.75%-3.24%42.36%
C13Banbury - Don Mills, Parkwoods - Donalda, Victoria Village44.68%34.55%49.18%65.91%21.62%41.46%19.84%42.90%
C03Oakwood - Vaughan, Forest Hill South68.42%26.92%61.54%40.91%38.46%34.78%-3.68%45.17%
Pickering41.03%43.64%51.02%47.83%58.33%40.00%-18.33%46.97%
C15Bayview Woods - Steeles, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Village, Don Valley Village, Henry Farm, Pleasant View46.39%35.05%58.96%59.46%36.97%46.15%9.18%47.16%
Halton Region58.19%46.63%59.59%49.26%33.33%39.92%6.58%47.82%
E07Milliken, Agincourt North, Agincourt South - Malvern West48.42%37.63%46.51%50.70%58.33%-58.33%48.32%
W04Humberlea - Pelmo Park, Rustic, Maple Leaf, Brookhaven - Amesbury, Mount Dennis, Yorkdale - Glen Park, Briar Hill - Belgravia50.00%48.05%67.19%46.75%51.72%31.88%-19.84%49.27%
W05Humber Summit, Humbermede, Black Creek, Glenfield - Jane Heights, Downsview - Roding, York University Heights73.08%42.86%51.06%51.22%42.03%35.37%-6.66%49.27%
Burlington54.03%53.49%56.35%48.31%44.19%41.90%-2.28%49.71%
Durham Region64.52%48.91%49.44%52.50%44.70%45.04%0.34%50.85%
W10West Humber Clairville, Elms - Old Rexdale, Thistletown - Beaumond Heights, Mount Olive Silverstone Jamestown78.95%45.16%38.16%47.83%59.62%44.94%-14.68%52.44%
C11Thorncliffe Park, Flemingdon Park, Leaside65.71%57.14%47.62%53.33%48.65%43.24%-5.41%52.62%
Georgina50.00%66.67%50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%50.00%52.78%
W07Newtonbrook West, Westminster - Branson, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate50.00%9.09%100.00%66.67%25.00%66.25%41.25%52.83%
Toronto East (Region)54.23%41.25%50.78%60.09%53.09%57.78%4.69%52.87%
E11Malvern, Rouge E1150.00%32.14%59.26%67.50%62.96%-62.96%54.37%
Toronto West (Region)61.17%52.74%60.06%59.97%58.50%49.20%-9.30%56.94%
Toronto Region59.06%50.12%59.42%62.71%63.30%47.45%-15.85%57.01%
Toronto Central (Region)59.81%51.76%61.81%64.67%56.26%47.88%-8.38%57.03%
E09Bendale, Woburn, Morningside61.11%59.74%55.00%62.32%49.09%-49.09%57.45%
C06Bathurst Manor, Clanton Park33.33%41.03%66.67%66.67%100.00%38.46%-61.54%57.69%
C14Newtonbrook East, Willowdale East57.07%53.67%63.86%72.80%48.39%54.74%6.35%58.42%
E03East York, Broadview North, Danforth, Danforth Village - East Yori, O'Connor - Parkview, Crescent Town35.00%32.00%85.71%42.11%130.00%26.19%-103.81%58.50%
C04Bedford Park Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Lawrence Park South, Forest Hill North, Edgemont - Lawrence60.00%35.14%84.00%42.86%75.00%61.54%-13.46%59.76%
W09Willowridge-Martingrove-Richview, Kingsview Village - The Westway, Humber Heights36.36%42.50%56.41%81.82%83.33%59.26%-24.07%59.95%
E08Scarborough Village, Cliffcrest, Guildwood52.50%57.58%26.67%86.67%80.00%-80.00%60.68%
Brampton46.70%38.69%56.73%64.75%49.50%108.57%59.07%60.82%
C01Dufferin Grove, Palmerston - Little Italy, Trinity Bellwoods, Waterfront Communities C1, Niagara, The Islands71.81%61.28%71.93%70.89%68.89%25.58%-43.31%61.73%
Peel Region63.71%52.35%70.73%64.60%61.11%68.19%7.08%63.45%
W08Eringate - Centennial West Deane, Princess-Rosethorn, Edenbridge Humber Valley, Kingsway South, Etobicoke West Mall, Markland Woods, Islington City Centre West61.68%50.74%68.70%63.16%80.28%63.16%-17.12%64.62%
E01North Riverdale, South Riverdale75.00%57.14%100.00%59.38%55.56%43.48%-12.08%65.09%
E04Wexford Maryvale, Dorset Park, Ionview, Kennedy Park, Clairlea Birchmount, Oakridge70.83%32.76%48.21%64.71%110.34%-110.34%65.37%
Mississauga69.83%57.58%75.87%64.47%64.75%60.00%-4.75%65.42%
C08Cabbagetown South - St. Jamestown, Regent Park, Moss Park, Waterfront Communities C869.31%65.45%61.25%75.00%48.55%78.79%30.24%66.39%
C10Mount Pleasant East71.05%49.15%80.00%89.19%76.19%35.71%-40.48%66.88%
E02Woodbine Corridor, The Beaches62.50%84.62%45.00%100.00%23.08%88.10%65.02%67.21%
Clarington108.33%31.58%100.00%66.67%75.00%37.50%-37.50%69.85%
C09Rosedale - Moore Park27.78%83.33%63.16%109.09%57.14%88.00%30.86%71.42%
Milton95.45%45.16%68.97%64.29%114.29%47.62%-66.67%72.63%
Whitby114.29%54.17%75.00%57.69%68.75%76.47%7.72%74.39%
Ajax55.56%95.83%88.89%100.00%50.00%61.54%11.54%75.30%
E10Highland Creek, West Hill, Centennial Scarborough, Rouge E1089.47%23.08%86.67%78.57%128.57%-128.57%81.27%
Dufferin Region75.00%120.00%25.00%50.00%166.67%100.00%-66.67%89.44%
High Park - Swansea, Roncessvalles, South Parkdale81.48%123.33%118.52%65.63%150.00%39.02%-110.98%96.33%
W03Rockcliffe-Smythe, Keelesdale-Eglinton West, Weston Pellam Park100.00%58.33%100.00%114.29%266.67%33.33%-233.33%112.10%
Halton Hills87.50%118.18%171.43%175.00%39.23%100.00%60.77%115.22%
W01High Park - Swansea, Roncessvalles, South Parkdale81.48%123.33%118.52%65.63%150.00%162.50%12.50%116.91%
W02High Park North, Junction Area106.67%73.08%96.88%205.00%115.38%118.75%3.37%119.29%
Caledon0.00%50.00%100.00%100.00%--%--%--%--%
Scugog--%--%0.00%--%--%--%--%--%
East Gwillimbury--%--%--%--%--%--%--%--%
Brock--%--%--%--%--%--%--%--%

Seller’s, Buyer’s & Balanced Markets for GTA Single-Family Homes

AreaNeighbourhoodsMarket Absorption Rate (August)Market Absorption Rate (September)Market Absorption Rate (October)Market Absorption Rate (November)Market Absorption Rate (December)Market Absorption Rate (January)M-o-M Change6 MONTH MAR AVERAGE
KingKing11.50%8.56%11.30%13.39%4.02%10.43%6.41%9.87%
C12St. Andrew - Winfields, Lawrence Park North15.63%8.46%10.37%11.76%5.49%11.11%5.62%10.47%
C14Newtonbrook East, Willowdale East13.82%11.95%11.04%8.67%11.82%25.00%13.18%13.72%
C07Westminster - Branson, Newtonbrook West, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate8.22%15.43%19.77%16.56%11.70%15.63%3.92%14.55%
East GwillimburyEast Gwillimbury15.33%12.86%19.76%15.96%11.90%12.22%0.32%14.67%
UxbridgeUxbridge14.66%12.21%18.03%17.59%18.31%22.50%4.19%17.22%
Richmond HillRichmond Hill22.38%14.50%16.73%16.64%13.81%12.65%-1.16%16.12%
C15Bayview Woods - Steeles, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Village, Don Valley Village, Henry Farm, Pleasant View25.62%14.94%20.71%20.47%6.25%10.81%4.56%16.47%
Whitchurch-StouffvilleWhitchurch-Stouffville20.77%17.92%22.26%16.59%16.56%13.07%-3.48%17.86%
York RegionYork Region21.80%17.34%21.98%20.83%17.42%16.21%-1.21%19.27%
Simcoe RegionSimcoe Region20.68%21.26%25.62%19.64%14.72%20.76%6.03%20.45%
BrockBrock20.00%22.99%25.64%19.44%15.63%22.03%6.41%20.96%
GeorginaGeorgina16.06%21.15%26.64%23.58%18.18%21.47%3.29%21.18%
VaughanVaughan23.49%18.48%23.27%23.32%20.85%17.82%-3.04%21.20%
MarkhamMarkham25.69%21.33%25.73%24.01%18.33%16.33%-2.01%21.90%
AuroraAurora28.13%13.72%22.33%27.56%23.42%26.58%3.16%23.62%
NewmarketNewmarket21.72%20.67%26.80%21.11%25.23%18.10%-7.13%22.27%
CaledonCaledon21.99%24.92%25.72%23.95%21.21%22.11%0.89%23.32%
ScugogScugog25.00%25.23%28.30%23.86%18.46%26.15%7.69%24.50%
OakvilleOakville28.81%24.05%25.66%21.47%21.16%23.27%2.11%24.07%
C06Bathurst Manor, Clanton Park31.43%28.57%21.15%14.81%25.81%17.71%-8.10%23.25%
E07 Milliken, Agincourt North, Agincourt South - Malvern West 35.90%29.41%28.24%25.33%21.28%25.64%4.36%27.63%
C13Banbury - Don Mills, Parkwoods - Donalda, Victoria Village16.00%37.08%37.97%37.50%12.77%1.94%-10.82%23.88%
Toronto CentralToronto Central25.18%24.06%33.33%29.22%32.62%53.85%21.22%33.04%
C04Bedford Park Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Lawrence Park South, Forest Hill North, Edgemont - Lawrence30.30%36.18%44.38%36.57%14.81%40.00%25.19%33.71%
E10Highland Creek, West Hill, Centennial Scarborough, Rouge E1031.96%28.93%48.18%35.71%20.27%53.57%33.30%36.44%
W05Humber Summit, Humbermede, Black Creek, Glenfield - Jane Heights, Downsview - Roding, York University Heights35.94%28.30%34.03%25.58%41.76%30.30%-11.46%32.65%
Halton RegionHalton Region38.45%29.40%36.52%29.41%34.34%32.12%-2.22%33.37%
E05Steeles, L'Amoreaux, Tam O'Shanter - Sullivan42.25%26.58%33.33%33.33%33.33%60.00%26.67%38.14%
W04Humberlea - Pelmo Park, Rustic, Maple Leaf, Brookhaven - Amesbury, Mount Dennis, Yorkdale - Glen Park, Briar Hill - Belgravia42.55%25.41%44.04%25.00%35.14%50.00%14.86%37.02%
MississaugaMississauga37.64%29.89%35.19%37.00%34.07%33.71%-0.36%34.58%
PickeringPickering34.07%35.27%37.13%42.35%29.03%28.57%-0.46%34.40%
Durham RegionDurham Region39.94%34.37%37.32%40.04%33.48%35.93%2.45%36.84%
Peel RegionPeel Region37.93%33.16%39.13%40.24%36.12%41.45%5.33%38.00%
BurlingtonBurlington40.58%34.88%41.05%37.76%32.65%36.92%4.26%37.31%
ClaringtonClarington46.73%36.18%40.87%37.41%28.00%37.55%9.55%37.79%
W08Eringate - Centennial West Deane, Princess-Rosethorn, Edenbridge Humber Valley, Kingsway South, Etobicoke West Mall, Markland Woods, Islington City Centre West32.35%32.69%45.81%44.72%37.68%57.14%19.46%41.73%
OshawaOshawa40.53%33.75%37.38%49.02%38.28%44.19%5.91%40.53%
Halton HillsHalton Hills66.39%28.66%47.92%31.29%28.88%32.43%3.55%39.26%
E08Scarborough Village, Cliffcrest, Guildwood48.33%40.54%43.06%33.80%38.10%41.30%3.21%40.86%
Whitby49.83%38.54%40.19%42.31%33.33%34.31%0.98%39.75%
C11Thorncliffe Park, Flemingdon Park, Leaside28.57%25.00%56.67%52.00%45.45%88.89%43.43%49.43%
Milton44.67%34.82%51.13%38.01%40.76%48.28%7.51%42.94%
E06Birchcliffe Cliffside38.78%30.67%45.71%38.18%56.67%56.67%0.00%44.45%
Toronto RegionToronto Region40.63%34.73%47.21%40.64%47.06%30.48%-16.58%40.12%
BramptonBrampton41.38%37.40%45.29%46.65%41.07%51.79%10.72%43.93%
C09Rosedale - Moore Park27.27%12.50%28.13%77.78%71.43%41.67%-29.76%43.13%
W10West Humber Clairville, Elms - Old Rexdale, Thistletown - Beaumond Heights, Mount Olive Silverstone Jamestown50.85%34.72%58.46%44.07%34.15%29.03%-5.11%41.88%
W06Mimico, Aldershot, Lakeview66.10%39.29%55.10%42.86%19.70%39.51%19.81%43.76%
E11Malvern, Rouge E1156.36%55.36%40.00%48.84%25.00%34.92%9.92%43.41%
Toronto EastToronto East53.35%45.29%59.13%52.22%18.14%14.74%-3.40%40.48%
W09Willowridge-Martingrove-Richview, Kingsview Village - The Westway, Humber Heights55.00%34.78%23.21%55.32%72.73%22.08%-50.65%43.85%
AjaxAjax49.54%47.84%46.75%46.92%61.42%41.96%-19.46%49.07%
Dufferin RegionDufferin Region36.45%42.73%70.89%39.73%68.09%48.21%-19.87%51.01%
C03Oakwood - Vaughan, Forest Hill South38.64%35.94%83.02%51.92%57.69%57.14%-0.55%54.06%
E04Wexford Maryvale, Dorset Park, Ionview, Kennedy Park, Clairlea Birchmount, Oakridge64.63%43.36%49.00%71.79%45.10%58.14%13.04%55.34%
W03Rockcliffe-Smythe, Keelesdale-Eglinton West, Weston Pellam Park52.05%41.67%75.00%64.94%45.10%50.00%4.90%54.79%
C08Cabbagetown South - St. Jamestown, Regent Park, Moss Park, Waterfront Communities C8114.29%31.58%41.67%55.56%57.14%7.92%-49.22%51.36%
C01Dufferin Grove, Palmerston - Little Italy, Trinity Bellwoods, Waterfront Communities C1, Niagara, The Islands57.58%57.14%93.75%52.83%55.17%17.50%-37.67%55.66%
E09Bendale, Woburn, Morningside61.11%42.65%87.27%49.12%76.67%42.86%-33.81%59.95%
C10Mount Pleasant East107.69%52.00%40.00%52.17%77.78%14.29%-63.49%57.32%
W01High Park - Swansea, Roncessvalles, South Parkdale42.86%76.67%84.85%80.00%58.33%35.82%-22.51%63.09%
C02Yonge - St. Clair, Annex University, Wychwood73.08%37.21%97.62%102.94%35.29%48.28%12.98%65.74%
E03East York, Broadview North, Danforth, Danforth Village - East York, O'Connor - Parkview, Crescent Town67.19%59.18%71.15%62.35%89.19%54.17%-35.02%67.21%
W02High Park North, Junction Area79.31%76.79%117.31%86.05%62.96%7.14%-55.82%71.59%
W07Newtonbrook West, Westminster - Branson, Willowdale West, Lansing - Westgate130.77%77.78%93.75%79.17%42.86%32.31%-10.55%76.10%
E02Woodbine Corridor, The Beaches114.29%80.49%123.08%121.05%114.29%58.33%-55.95%101.92%
E01North Riverdale, South Riverdale118.18%112.24%200.00%125.81%175.00%46.71%-128.29%129.66%

Six-month Trends

In the GTA, the neighbourhoods that remained firmly in a seller’s market for single-family homes (SFH) include:

The neighbourhoods that remained firmly in a seller’s market for condos include:

The flipside, of course, is that some communities have been firmly entrenched in a buyer’s market. For single-family homes, these communities included:

For condos and townhouses, the communities that are consistently in a buyer’s market include:

  • Whitchurch-Stouffville region – Average 5 month MAR = 8.43% 
  • Simcoe Region – Average 5 month MAR = 16.91%
  • King City regionAverage 5 month MAR = 19.17%
  • Aurora regionAverage 5 month MAR = 19.86%

The key going forward into 2019 will be to keep in eye on the neighbourhood, area and region’s market absorption rates — to determine if a trend is shifting and whether or not this shift offers an opportunity for buyers, sellers or investors.

Romana King and David Weisz
Romana King and David Weisz

Romana is an award-winning personal finance writer with an expertise in real estate. David is a Toronto-based journalist who specializes in data-driven reporting.