{"id":4335,"date":"2018-01-04T05:00:42","date_gmt":"2018-01-04T10:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/news\/?p=4335"},"modified":"2022-06-07T18:56:41","modified_gmt":"2022-06-07T22:56:41","slug":"home-appraiser-housing-market-predictions-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/home-appraiser-housing-market-predictions-2018","title":{"rendered":"What do Home Appraisers See for Canada’s Housing Market in 2018?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The expectation in 2017 was for Canada’s real estate market to crash<\/a>. Some even pointed to dips in activity and the rise in the number of listings as a signal that the crash was starting. But it was a short-lived blip. Now, the focus is on predicting the outlook for Canada’s housing market in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the decline in the number of transactions and the reduced selling activity, particularly in the country’s two hottest markets, this prediction of market slowing was accurate. But Canada’s housing market didn’t crash. According to preliminary year-end statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), housing prices across the country dropped by an average of 10%. While this small dip in prices meant anxiety in the biggest real estate centres\u2014Vancouver area<\/a> and the Greater Toronto Area<\/a> (GTA)\u2014most provinces remain optimistic. The general take is that the market softening is a sign of a market correction, not a housing market crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No one has a crystal ball to determine where the real estate market is headed in 2018<\/a>. However, there are some esteemed industry experts, home appraisers, who can help us prepare for what is to come based on market trends, regulation impacts and whether we\u2019ll see a balanced Canadian housing market in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Do Home Appraisers Expect in 2018?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\"CanadaMany home appraisers are looking forward to some steady and balanced markets in Canada from coast-to-coast. Some say it\u2019s best to wait until January or February to gain further insight on trends, whereas others are more certain of where they think the market will go in the New Year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s typically been very steady even throughout the winter months here,\u201d explains Deana Halladay, a home appraiser in Winnipeg, Manitoba. \u201cI sense that we may see a little bit more of a slow down in 2018.\u201d However, Halladay believes that a small slow down will likely not affect pricing. Agnes Lee, an AIC-licensed residential and commercial appraiser in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), holds a similar mindset as far as overall property values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t expect a lot of changes in terms of demand and pricing,\u201d said Lee. \u201cIt will be a stabilizing year, which is a good thing and a healthy thing for the market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real Estate Outlook 2018:
Ontario’s Housing Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lee believes that 2018 will make for a “very interesting year.\u201d She adds that in her conversations with local realtors, “they have been telling me that things are slow, but people are still interested in buying.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s a “wait-and-see” approach, says Lee. If anything, she sees demand shifting to more affordable housing types, meaning interest in multi-family properties and condominium units will increase in 2018 in most Ontario housing markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real Estate Outlook 2018:
East Coast’s Housing Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Further east, things are slow and showing little sign of increase\u2014whereas Ontario and surrounding provinces are still thriving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe biggest concern is the instability of our economy going forward,\u201d said Jerry Kirkland, an AIC-licensed home appraiser in St. John\u2019s, Newfoundland. \u201cUncertainty is quite significant here in the St. John\u2019s area, and that is going to be reflected in the 2018 market and our real estate market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kirkland says the entry-level market is good. However, the upper-end market, which in St. John\u2019s, sits at the $500,000 mark has been hit the hardest regarding residential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real Estate Outlook 2018:
The Prairies’ Housing Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Out west in provinces such as Manitoba, B.C. and Alberta things are steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re looking at a fairly stable market right now,\u201d said Halladay. \u201cI don\u2019t see any big indications that it\u2019s going to change a whole lot.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supply seems to be a problem for most western provinces, as they either have too much or not enough. Halladay says the condominium market, although seeing some action, is oversaturated to the point that they are over seven months ahead of the market need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real Estate Outlook 2018:
B.C.’s Housing Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Prairie provinces may have too much supply, particularly of condo-units, B.C. stands in stark contrast. Homeowners in the Vancouver area are in dire need of more supply\u2014of single-family homes as well as multi-family units\u2014and cannot seem to find it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDemand is certainly outserving supply,\u201d said Leigh Walker, a home appraiser in Vancouver, B.C. \u201cThat\u2019s been the story for a certain number of years now.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Walker predicts a moderate year with only minor ups and downs. Expect increases and decreases to continue in their respective areas throughout 2018, with only minor ups and downs of about 5% either way. Overall, he says, things look healthy and balanced for the 2018 market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Impact Will the New Regulations Have on the Market?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Real<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Starting January 1, 2018, regulation changes, such as the new rules for the mortgage stress test<\/a>, will be in play. It’s a worry for many Canadians who have yet to enter the home ownership world and even home appraisers think this new mortgage rule will have an impact on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith these regulation changes, many are waiting to see what kind of<\/em> impact this will have on the market,\u201d said Lee. Those that aren’t waiting are changing their strategy. “Instead of buying the more expensive homes, they\u2019re scaling down to something more affordable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lee doesn\u2019t think the new regulation changes will have a significant impact on buying activity, even with more buyers being displaced to the sidelines. As a result, Lee predicts the impact of the mortgage stress test will put upward pressure on the condominium market, particularly in hotter real estate markets like in the GTA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI understand the logic of why our government is trying to cool down certain markets, but the problem is that it\u2019s a national decision,\u201d said Kirkland. \u201cIt throws cold water on a fire that\u2019s already out in all but a few select markets in Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Kirkland agrees with the intentions to cool hot markets, he doesn’t believe it\u2019s great news for the province of Newfoundland or for smaller cities across Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the outlook for Canada’s housing market in 2018 is that many people will have to reevaluate their thoughts on what type of home they want and what type of home they can afford. \u201cPeople that qualify for a conventional mortgage are not going to be in the same price range anymore with that stress test,\u201d said Halladay. \u201cBut I don\u2019t know if it will take them out of the market, rather they may have to shift their focus a little bit.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where Are Buyers Headed in 2018?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"More<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Although it doesn\u2019t seem new regulations are going to take many future homeowners out of the game, it does seem that their intent to buy property will be much different than originally predicted. With most cities outside of Toronto and Vancouver typically leading buyers to single-family homes, some are seeing an increase in desire for multi-family properties instead. One example of this is the oversaturated condominium market in Winnipeg, which gives potential buyers bargaining power and a lot of selection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another unintended consequence leading up to the country-wide implementation of the new stress test is in new home developments in larger cities. Lee noticed that in some areas of the city smaller developers appear to have gone quiet. She assumes these smaller construction deals have left the market in anticipation of slower demand for new-build single-family homes\u2014homes that often carry the largest list prices. \u201cThat\u2019s a good thing because it leaves a lot less speculation in the market,\u201d says Lee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether buyers choose to search for single-family or multi-family homes in 2018, the bottom line is that they will still be looking. All five of the home appraisers were certain that although there will be some small changes and moments of adjustment, overall the market will be balanced and healthy for both buyers and sellers across Canada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On the whole, most appraisers see the nation’s housing market returning to a balanced state in 2018 but that doesn’t mean some rough spots for certain real estate markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":4354,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[110],"guide":[],"class_list":["post-4335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-trends","tag-outlook-2018"],"acf":[],"zolo_excerpt":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4335"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4335\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21251,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4335\/revisions\/21251"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4354"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4335"},{"taxonomy":"guide","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zolo.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/guide?post=4335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}